Elektabilitas SDK VS Popularitas ABM

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cagub sulbar
Fokus7.com – Calon Gubernur Sulawesi Barat Dr. Suhardi Duka MM (SDK) beberapa bulan lalu mengklaim dirinya memiliki survei tertinggi diantara seluruh kandidat untuk bertarung di pemilihan Gubernur Sulbar yang akan digelar pada Februari 2017.
“Survei elektabilitas saya paling tinggi diantara kandidat lain  sebab itu saya menyatakan diri maju di Pilgub Sulbar,” kata Suhardi Duka di Mamuju.
Disisi lain ABM juga mengklaim saat ini berada diposisi tertinggi dari hasil survei elektabilitas dibanding beberapa tokoh lainnya, khususnya di Kabupaten Polman, Majene dan Mamasa.
Dari hasil survey tersebut tentunya akan menjadi tanda tanya mengenai integritas sebuah lembaga survey karena terkesan ditunggangi, atau bisa saja penyampaian-penyampain seperti itu hanyalah kampanye yang berkedok survey untuk mematahkan semangat lawan…?

Al-Ghazali yang secara langsung juga pernah terlibat dalam Lembaga Survey mengatakan, “bahwa dari segi elektabilitas SDK mungkin memiliki survey yang tinggi, namun dari segi popularitas saya rasa ABM tidak diragukan lagi. Nah itu yang tidak dibahasakan secara terperinci oleh LS di Sulbar jika benar-benar telah melakukan survey karena di dalam survey itu ada beberapa indikatornya”.


Perlu dipahami apa itu ELEKTABILITAS & POPULARITAS ?

Elektabilitas adalah tingkat keterpilihan yang disesuaikan dengan kriteria pilihan. Elektabilitas sering dibicarakan menjelang pemilihan umum. Elektabilitas partai politik berarti tingkat keterpilihan partai politik di publik. Elektabilitas partai tinggi berarti partai tersebut memiliki daya pilih yang tinggi. Untuk meningkatkan elektabilitas maka objek elektabilitas harus memenuhi kriteria keterpilihan dan juga populer.
Sedangkan Popularitas adalah tingkat keterkenalan di mata public. Meskipun populer belum tentu layak dipilih. Sebaliknya meskipun punya elektabilitas sehingga layak dipilih tapi karena tidak diketahui public, maka rakyat tidak memilih. Untuk meningkatkan elektabilitas maka sangat tergantung pada teknik kampanye yang dipergunakan. Dalam masyarakat yang belum berkembang, kecocokan profesi tidak menjadi persoalan. Yang perlu diingat, tidak semua kampanye berhasil meningkatkan elektabilitas. Ada kampanye yang menyentuh, ada kampanye yang tidak menyentuh kepentingan rakyat.
Bagaimana bro… setelah membaca perihal Popularitas dan Elektabilitas ? Apakah penentu suatu pilihan dalam pemilu, pilkada atau pilpres itu sekedar berdasarkan popularitas, elektabiliatas, atau keduanya?

Mari kita ambil contoh pemilihan produk. Jika ada beberap pilihan produk yang sama, maka apa dasar kita untuk memilih produk yang terbaik? Di antara beberapa produk, kemudian hanya satu dua produk yang memiliki tingkat keterpilihan (elektabilitas) tinggi. Bila melihat popularitas, semua produk sepeda motor yang ada di Indonesia itu popular. Kata elektabilitas bisa dikaitkan dengan sosok yang akan dipilih atau nama partai peserta pemilu. Tidak pernah ada elektabilitas itu dikaitkan dengan produk sepeda motor, padahal pada prakteknya elektabilitas produk sepeda motor itu yang menentukan dipilih atau tidaknya oleh pembeli.


source : facebook

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